Conflicting death and arrest figures, testimony of indiscriminate and targeted shooting, allegations of extortion for bodies, and a prolonged internet blackout point to a coordinated crackdown and widening calls for accountability.
Since nationwide protests began on 28 December 2025, the number of people killed and arrested has become a central battleground in the war of narrative. Rather than publishing a comprehensive, verifiable accounting, the authorities have relied on security-framed statements with limited temporal scope.
In its latest “analytical statement,” the National Security Council announced 3,117 deaths, claiming 2,427 of them were “innocent people and protectors of order and security,” meaning more than three-quarters of the dead are presented as “non-protesters” and state forces, while the number of killed protesters is reduced to 690. The statement offers no figures for the wounded or detained, and largely restricts its accounting to 8–9 January 2026.
Independent human rights reporting presents markedly higher and evolving counts. HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency) has reported at least 4,519 killed and over 26,000 detained; elsewhere, figures cited include 4,902 confirmed deaths plus 9,387 cases under verification, alongside 7,389 severely injured and 26,541 detained. At the same time, some non-official estimates have reached as high as 20,000 killed—claims that remain difficult to independently verify under conditions of widespread communications disruption.
Beyond contested counts, the reports converge on a qualitatively distinct escalation: organized, lethal state violence deployed at scale over a very short period—reported to have peaked across two nights—amounting to mass killings that mark a rupture even within the Islamic Republic’s long record of repression.
Patterns of violence — from indiscriminate fire to targeting vital organs
A Reuters report based on testimonies and field accounts indicates that bystanders and non-protesters were also targeted. It includes cases of people killed while merely watching events or simply moving through the city. Families described being forced to search hospitals, morgues, and detention sites to locate missing relatives. Meanwhile, officials have sought to attribute deaths to “terrorists” and “rioters.”
In parallel, reporting by OCCRP (Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project)—while noting that not all details could be independently verified—describes allegations of security forces firing at vital areas (including eyes and the heart), references to large numbers of bodies in medical facilities, and claims that bodies were held without notifying families. The most serious allegation concerns money demanded from families for the return of bodies: sums reportedly beginning at 800 million tomans (about $5,700 at an open-market rate of roughly 141,000 tomans per US dollar in late January 2026) and in some accounts approaching one billion tomans (about $7,100) under the label of “bullet costs,” coupled with restrictions or bans on mourning ceremonies. Officials have denied these claims, but their repetition in testimonies raises urgent questions about coercion and intimidation directed at families of victims.
Digital blackout — the internet as a tool of repression and concealment
While some government-linked figures speak of a return to a “reasonable point,” they simultaneously insist that even under “normal conditions,” foreign platforms will remain filtered. NetBlocks has reported over 300 hours of nationwide internet disruption. This blackout has hindered independent documentation, obstructed efforts to trace detainees’ whereabouts, and limited information about the dead and injured.
Inside the country, evidence points to a policy of selective access: promised connectivity for “traders and merchants” has effectively been reduced to limited access points, reinforcing concerns about an emerging privileged, tiered internet. Reports also indicate expanding digital intimidation and surveillance, including threatening SMS messages and Meta’s decision to hide followers/following lists for Iranian users after concerns about mass data extraction.
At the official level, the president’s executive deputy described internet shutdowns as “unavoidable,” explicitly warning that if the Islamic Republic is “attacked,” cutting the internet is inevitable—framing connectivity not as a public right, but as a conditional privilege determined by security institutions.
Security narrative-making — shifting responsibility and moving attention away from victims
The National Security Council’s statement reframes protests not as a domestic political crisis but as “organized terrorist actions” driven by “foreign enemies.” It deploys sensational descriptions of “ISIS-like crimes,” while emphasizing damage to banks, mosques, markets, and public property. Combined with a significant lowering of death figures and the omission of injury and detention counts, this narrative shifts public focus from human victims to material destruction.
At the same time, international reporting—most notably Reuters—has published testimonies indicating that security forces targeted bystanders and then attributed the deaths to “terrorists,” highlighting a widening discrepancy between official claims and accounts from families and witnesses.
Judicial and social crackdown — case-building, asset seizures, and promises of rapid punishment
Alongside street-level repression, the judiciary has broadened its campaign into social and professional spheres. The Tehran prosecutor’s office announced legal cases against athletes, artists, and dozens of business units accused of “supporting protests,” including asset seizures and the threat of forcing defendants to compensate for alleged property damage—an unmistakable deterrent message aimed at public figures and livelihoods.
At the highest level, the head of the judiciary promised rapid and uncompromising punishments, saying there would be “no leniency,” and spoke of measures to shorten legal timelines and even fast-track new legislation to address claimed “legal gaps.” He was also reported to have pushed for reclassifying charges from “disrupting public order” to “acting against national security,” a broad and historically weaponized accusation used for decades to suppress dissent.
Pressure on medical personnel and obstruction of lifesaving care — from hospitals to prisons
One of the most alarming aspects is mounting pressure on health workers and the transformation of medical spaces into an extension of security enforcement. Reports describe threatening calls to doctors, demands to refrain from treating protest-related injuries, and pressures to report wounded patients to security agencies.
Further reports indicate similar patterns inside prisons. According to information cited by Iran Human Rights, medical staff in Adelabad Prison (Shiraz) were allegedly instructed not to treat wounded detainees; some reportedly died of bleeding. The same reporting includes claims that a doctor was detained for insisting on providing care.
Why “crimes against humanity”? Legal criteria and the elements cited
A legal assessment published by the human rights organization AHRĀZ argues that events since 28 December 2025 meet the material and mental elements of crimes against humanity under international criminal law: widespread killings, enforced disappearances, severe bodily harm, torture, and other inhumane acts carried out as part of a widespread or systematic attack against a civilian population, with perpetrators aware of that attack.
The assessment points to indicators including: the scale and lethality of force, targeting of vital body areas, pursuit or abduction of the injured, communications blackouts aimed at concealment, intimidation of families, withholding bodies or imposing conditions for their return, and violence affecting children. It stresses non-immunity and calls for international mechanisms and the use of universal jurisdiction in national courts to pursue those responsible.
International and economic consequences — diplomatic isolation and the cost of blackout
Signs of growing international repercussions have also emerged: Lufthansa announced the suspension of Tehran flights until 29 March 2026, and Iran’s foreign minister’s invitation to the World Economic Forum in Davos was reportedly withdrawn. Officials and economic actors have also highlighted the economic damage of the internet shutdown. The U.S. State Department has claimed daily losses of more than $37 million due to the blackout, while domestic business representatives describe severe disruption and deepening recessionary pressures under prolonged digital darkness.
Conclusion
The convergence of mass killings, mass arrests, communications blackouts and selective internet access, judicial case-building and asset seizures, pressure on medical personnel, and an official security narrative that minimizes death figures and shifts blame, points to a sustained pattern of state repression. Under such conditions, independent evidence collection, protection of witnesses and victims’ families, and accountability measures—national and international—remain critical to preventing further abuse and entrenched impunity.
