The 12-Day war between Iran and Israel has created such a profound stillness that it can no longer be described as a brief military clash. Its repercussions quickly spilled beyond the borders of the two countries, casting a heavy shadow over the entire Middle East. While artillery has fallen silent and the skies over Tehran and Tel Aviv appear calmer, regional dynamics have entered a state of suspension and uncertainty. Just as Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities resulted in the de facto, though not official, suspension of Tehran’s nuclear program, other processes across the region – political, security, and geopolitical – have also stalled, awaiting major decisions.
Iran’s Nuclear Program: Suspended Without an Agreement
According to reports by the International Atomic Energy Agency, Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, especially Natanz and Fordow, disabled more than 80 percent of active centrifuges. Of Iran’s 22,000 centrifuges, most have now either been destroyed or rendered unusable.
For the first time since the 2003 Saadabad Agreement (a deal in which Iran agreed to temporarily suspend uranium enrichment after negotiations with Britain, France, and Germany), the country has no active centrifuges. This silence, however, is not the outcome of a negotiated deal but the result of U.S. and Israeli bombardment. In Tel Aviv, ears remain attuned to any sign of renewed activity from Iran.
Yet the Islamic Republic has refrained from officially declaring an end to enrichment. Senior officials in Tehran continue to issue ambiguous statements. Faced with security challenges, decision-makers remain torn between rebuilding nuclear infrastructure, negotiating to ease external pressures, or threatening to take new nuclear steps. This indecision has also spilled into other regional processes.
The Abraham Accords: Halted Before the Next Step
In recent years, the Abraham Accords (U.S.-brokered agreements launched in 2020 to normalize Israel’s relations with several Arab states) normalized Israel’s relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Before the 12-Day War, analysts expected Saudi Arabia, Oman, and even Kuwait to move toward joining. Informal talks were underway in Washington and Riyadh, with predictions that Saudi Arabia would join the Accords if the U.S. offered additional security guarantees and civilian nuclear concessions. But now, that process is at a complete standstill.
The reason is clear: Arab states are uncertain about the Islamic Republic’s trajectory in the coming months. If Iran is weakened and isolated, closer ties with Israel carry little risk. But if Tehran manages to recover or escalates tensions further, joining the Abraham Accords could expose Arab states to serious security risks. As in Tehran, hesitation now prevails in Riyadh, Manama, and Abu Dhabi.
Iraq: Fire Beneath the Ashes
A similar suspension is visible in Iraq. Iran-backed militias, particularly the Popular Mobilization Forces (an umbrella organization of mostly Shia militias, aligned with Tehran), have scaled back their aggressive activities since the 12-Day war. Sectarian and political tensions still simmer in Baghdad and Basra, from rivalries between the Coordination Framework (a coalition of Shi’a parties close to Iran, formed in opposition to Muqtada al-Sadr’s movement) and the Sadrists, to social protests in southern Iraq. Yet, they have not yet erupted into major crisis.
Militias close to Tehran appear to be waiting to see how much influence the Islamic Republic retains in the region after the war. If Iran consolidates its position, these groups will grow bolder. If Tehran remains weakened, they are likely to move toward greater accommodation with Iraq’s central government and army. This suspension has so far kept Iraq, despite its fragility, from descending into broader conflict.
Lebanon: Disarmament on Paper, Hesitation in Practice
Lebanon is currently undergoing a legal process aimed at disarming Hezbollah, under pressure from the U.S. and certain domestic factions. On the ground, however, little has changed. Hezbollah, more cautious after recent blows to Iran, has avoided actions that could ignite a new crisis. The Lebanese government fears that any hasty move to alter the balance of power could backfire if conditions shift in Tehran’s favour, once again empowering Hezbollah.
As a result, Beirut too finds itself in a state of waiting. Attention is less on Lebanon’s parliament or government than on Tehran. Hezbollah’s future is tied not only to its own domestic strength within Lebanon but also to the fate of the Islamic Republic in the months ahead.
The South Caucasus: A Corridor in Limbo
Signs of suspension are also evident on Iran’s northern borders. With Trump’s mediation at the White House, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a deal to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and establish the Zangezur Corridor — later dubbed the “Trump Corridor” — linking Nakhchivan to Azerbaijan through Armenian territory. But implementation has been slow, and both sides view the future with caution.
In Baku and Yerevan, the belief is widespread that developments in Iran could reshape the balance of power in the South Caucasus. If the Islamic Republic weakens, Azerbaijan and its allies will push harder against Armenia. If Tehran recovers, its deterrent role will resurface. Like elsewhere in the region, the Caucasus is stuck in a holding pattern.
A Region Waiting on Tehran
No regional actor is eager to show its hand prematurely. The current dynamics are riddled with risks and unknowns, and any hasty move could prove disastrous if conditions shift. As Tehran struggles to rebuild and reevaluates its national security and nuclear strategy, other regional states remain in a state of suspension and anticipation.
This limbo underscores that regional states still see the scenario of “the Islamic Republic overcoming its crises” as relatively plausible, or at least consider the future uncertain.
What we see today in the Middle East and its neighbourhood is a region unprepared for major change, where actors are hesitant to make decisive moves: neither against the storm, nor with it. The war’s heavy toll on Iran during the 12-Day War has left many projects half-finished — from Riyadh-Washington security ties and the Abraham Accords, to Iraq’s future, Lebanon’s power balance, and even the Caucasus peace process. All are overshadowed by one overriding question: What will become of the Islamic Republic?
