A maritime blockade in the Red Sea threatens oil flows, shipping routes, fertiliser supplies, and global food security.
How can disruption in a strait in the Middle East shake the price of petrol and bread on the other side of the world? This is a look at the serious consequences of the Bab al-Mandab crisis for oil markets and global food security.
In 2023, nearly 12 percent of the world’s seaborne oil trade passed through this strait, but Houthi attacks in 2024 reduced that flow. Experts now warn that sustained disruption in Bab al-Mandab could affect oil markets and place further pressure on infrastructure in the countries bordering the Persian Gulf. This would threaten not only energy trade, but also global food security.
How the Crisis Escalated
Tensions and intense clashes began over the weekend of 6–7 June 2026, when United States forces intercepted several Iranian one-way attack drones that were threatening commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Central Command then struck Iranian coastal radar sites in Gurak and on Qeshm Island. At the same time, Reuters reported that the U.S. Treasury Department, under the direction of Scott Bessent, was examining legal ways to redirect Iran’s frozen assets — which Tehran says amount to 24 billion dollars — toward Washington’s Arab allies in the Persian Gulf, in order to fund reconstruction and compensate for damage caused by Iranian attacks on their infrastructure.
U.S. President Donald Trump emphasized these financial pressures during an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press, broadcast on Sunday. Trump stated explicitly that the United States would refuse to lift any sanctions or immediately release assets before an agreement, saying that economic opening would come only after a final and secure deal had been signed.
The fragile regional ceasefire collapsed late on Sunday, 7 June 2026. First came a Hezbollah rocket attack, followed by an Israeli airstrike on the group’s command centre in southern Beirut, in Dahiyeh. In response, Iran launched ballistic missiles toward Israeli air bases. Although Donald Trump had warned Benjamin Netanyahu not to respond, in order to preserve the negotiation process, the Israeli army escalated the conflict in the early hours of Monday, 8 June 2026, carrying out strikes in western and central Iran. According to reports, a petrochemical complex in Mahshahr was also targeted.
At the same time, Yemen’s Houthis announced a maritime blockade on Monday morning, barring Israeli ships from Bab al-Mandab — a move that threatens the vital arteries of global trade.
Where Is Bab al-Mandab?
Bab al-Mandab is not just a narrow passage between Yemen and the Horn of Africa. It is the southern gate of the Red Sea, linking the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden to the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean. Any sustained disruption there can ripple through oil markets, shipping insurance, fertiliser production, and ultimately food prices.
The strait lies at a vital crossroads between continents, separating Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula from Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa. Until recent crises, it was one of the backbones of trade between Asia and Europe.
The strait is around 100 kilometres long, and at its narrowest point is roughly 30 kilometres wide. It channels a huge volume of global trade. Perim Island divides the strait into two passages: the deeper western channel, known as Dact-el-Mayun, which serves as the main route for international shipping; and the shallower eastern passage, known as Bab Iskander, used by local vessels.
Traditionally, millions of barrels of oil, liquefied natural gas, and container cargo passed through this strait every day, making it one of the world’s most sensitive maritime chokepoints. But given the current maritime blockade and unprecedented military tensions, much of this international traffic has now been disrupted.
Its Arabic name, Bab al-Mandab — the “Gate of Tears” — reflects both centuries of deadly navigational dangers along this route and a legend about a devastating earthquake that separated Asia from Africa. Although the strait has long connected East Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia, its global importance increased sharply after the opening of the Suez Canal in 1869. The canal created a direct maritime route to Europe through the Mediterranean and removed the need to sail around the African continent.
Tehran’s Reading and the IRGC’s Maritime Strategy
The disruption of this strait is not an isolated event, but the culmination of months of warnings from Iranian politicians and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser to the Supreme Leader and former foreign minister, warned on X on Monday: “The current security of Bab al-Mandab should not lead the enemy into miscalculation.” He added: “The Resistance has the capacity to lock both waterways.” Velayati was referring to the Axis of Resistance, an alliance of Iran-aligned groups including the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza, and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Geopolitically, the IRGC views the recent 50-day negotiation period as a one-sided ceasefire that Israel exploited to displace Lebanon’s Shiite population and weaken Hezbollah, Iran’s main regional arm. As a result, it sees the disruption of Bab al-Mandab as a necessary and appropriate response.
As can be seen in the writings and interviews of analysts close to the IRGC and military think tanks inside Iran, the Guards see Yemen as occupying a unique geopolitical and geostrategic position among members of the Axis of Resistance. Yemen’s ability to cut off the Red Sea route poses a particular threat to Israel’s maritime economy and can shut down the port of Eilat, while imposing heavy costs on Western coalitions. Rerouting maritime traffic around the Cape of Good Hope can add up to 14 days to shipping journeys and increase transport and insurance costs by up to 75 percent. Given that around 12 to 15 percent of global trade and shipping normally relies on the Suez Canal, and 10 to 12 percent of global energy passes through Bab al-Mandab, a prolonged blockade would create severe political, economic, and security crises across Europe.
Regional powers have already shifted strategy. Saudi Arabia, seeking to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, has tried to rely on the Red Sea ports of Yanbu and Jeddah, as well as the East-West Pipeline. But from the perspective of IRGC strategists, this has effectively led Riyadh into the trap of a Houthi counter-move, because oil sent to the port of Yanbu must still pass through the insecure Bab al-Mandab chokepoint to reach Asian markets. Despite diplomatic efforts to calm Sana’a, Western attempts have failed to neutralize Yemen’s geographical advantage, and the IRGC sees Bab al-Mandab as its main trump card.
The IRGC had previously threatened that if Western or Israeli forces targeted Iran’s energy infrastructure, Tehran would respond through the Houthis with reciprocal and symmetrical action. Such action would likely include attacks on Saudi oil facilities, such as Abqaiq, potentially dragging the entire region into a full-scale energy war.
A Threat to Global Energy Markets
Bab al-Mandab is recognized as one of the most vital maritime transit corridors on earth. In terms of crude oil and liquid petroleum products, it has historically ranked third after the Strait of Malacca, with 24 million barrels per day, and the Strait of Hormuz, with 21.8 million barrels per day. Before these conflicts, around 8.8 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products passed through the strait each day, accounting for nearly 12 percent of the world’s seaborne oil trade. However, repeated attacks on ships along this route have systematically strained this vital artery and reduced daily transit volumes to 4.1 million barrels, as international fleets have begun abandoning the Red Sea route.
If Bab al-Mandab and the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted at the same time, more than one quarter of global seaborne oil and gas flows could be affected. As the Strait of Hormuz becomes increasingly restricted, the importance of Bab al-Mandab has doubled. Saudi Arabia, which in the past relied mainly on Hormuz, is now heavily focused on its Red Sea port of Yanbu. Using the 1,200-kilometre East-West Pipeline operated by Aramco, Saudi Arabia has tried to move part of its exports to this terminal, although continued insecurity in the southern Red Sea has severely challenged the effectiveness of this alternative route.
With the outbreak of a wider war with Iran in March 2026, oil prices shook global markets. Brent crude jumped by more than 50 percent, passing 116 dollars per barrel and putting oil on course for its largest monthly rise in history.
The Butterfly Effect: A Global Food and Fertiliser Crisis
The consequences of disrupting these shipping routes go far beyond energy. These routes are also vital arteries for cargoes that sustain global food production. The Strait of Hormuz alone carries up to 30 percent of international trade in gas-based nitrogen fertilisers. Unlike oil, there is no coordinated global strategic reserve for chemical fertilisers.
Since the escalation of conflict in late February 2026, major producers in Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have reduced or halted operations. The shutdown and suspension of these production complexes has removed a vital source of supply from the global agricultural chain. Commodity prices reflect this major shock: urea prices in the Middle East remain between 75 and 108 percent above pre-conflict levels. At the same time, because Qatari LNG shipments have not arrived, natural gas prices in Europe have risen, increasing the cost of producing nitrogen fertilisers in factories around the world.
Farmers face an impossible dilemma. Many are reducing their use of fertiliser, which will lead to sharp declines in crop yields, especially in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa. Others are shifting land use away from nitrogen-intensive crops such as wheat and maize toward soybeans, which can fix nitrogen biologically. Yet soybeans cannot replace strategic grains in the human diet. This means that such a shift could further restrict global grain supplies, raise food prices, and disproportionately affect low-income countries.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has used a global economic model to simulate these disruptions. The results show that even moderate disruptions would reduce household income and food consumption worldwide. In the most severe scenario, if disruptions continue until 2027, the global economy would fail to return to its original trajectory, pushing tens of millions more people into poverty and hunger.
What Comes Next?
The Houthi movement, which controls large parts of Yemen, has demonstrated its ability to disrupt global trade. The group initially began targeting ships in late 2023 in response to Israel’s attacks on Gaza. Although that campaign subsided after ceasefire developments in 2025, Monday’s renewed blockade marks a serious escalation.
Media officials from the Houthi government in Sana’a told Al-Araby TV that the group’s actions were “calculated precisely to be effective and to double the pressure on Israel and the United States.” They emphasized that the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and Bab al-Mandab would remain among the options used as levers of pressure.
The strait’s proximity to Yemen places strategic sites in Djibouti well within the group’s range. Houthi involvement could reignite Yemen’s civil war and eliminate possible exits from the wider Middle East crisis.
If the Houthis truly enter a full-scale war, the blockade of the strait is their ultimate weapon. Nabil Khoury, a former U.S. diplomat, told Al Jazeera that previous Houthi missile attacks were a “symbolic participation.” A complete closure of the strait, however, is a different matter. Khoury told Al Jazeera: “All they have to do is fire at a few passing ships, and that will stop all commercial shipping in the Red Sea. That would be a red line, and after that you would very quickly see attacks against Yemen by the United States and Israel.”
If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues while restrictions in Bab al-Mandab intensify, trade toward Europe could face severe disruption.
