As tensions escalate and the specter of Iran launching an attack on Israel looms large in the minds of some experts, Zamaneh Media reached out to Joseph Daher for insight. Daher, an academic and authority on military conflicts in the Middle East particularly in Lebonan and Syria. Daher is renowned for his work, including the book “Hezbollah: The Political Economy of the Party of God.”
Zamaneh Asked: Do you think Iran will attack Israel directly? What do you believe will be the consequences of such an action for the government of the Islamic Republic and the people of Iran, as well as for Israel and Palestine? Additionally, do you anticipate any involvement from the United States in a possible war? Here is Daher’s analysis:
Joseph Daher – I don’t think Iran will attack Israel directly, although it is something we cannot completely ignore. Indeed, Teheran has promised a strong response following the assassination of the commander of the al-Quds force for the Levant, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, with his deputy and other military officials in an Israeli strike. Moreover, the missiles targeted the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. So Iran wants to re-establish a certain deterrent power while avoiding being drawn into a regionalized war that would jeopardize its regime. Reluctance to launch a more intense military response to the Israeli war comes from Teheran’s desire to preserve its own political and geopolitical interests, similar to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Hezbollah continues to serve as a “pressure front” against Tel Aviv, as expressed in speeches by Hassan Nasrallah. Iran does not want its crown jewel Hezbollah to be weakened.
Iran’s geopolitical objective is not to liberate the Palestinians but to use these groups as leverage, particularly in its relations with the United States. In this context, Hezbollah is sticking to “calculated and proportional reactions” against Israeli attacks.
Until now, Iran has preferred to act through its network of regional affiliates, using the concept of “plausible deniability” to dismiss its direct responsibility, claiming that they act independently. This has been a way to avoid Israeli attacks on its own territory, while the regime’s main aim is to guarantee its survival. Since the beginning of the genocidal war against Gaza’s population, Teheran has declared on numerous occasions its refusal to be drawn into a generalized and direct conflict with Israel, despite Tel Aviv’s continuous strikes and targeted assassinations of high-ranking Iranian officials. Once again the networks of regional affiliates of Iran could be used as well to react against Israel or US interests in the region. As a reminder, U.S. military bases in Syria — and Iraq — have become targets of increased drone and rocket attacks orchestrated by Iranian-affiliated groups. It is a way for these forces to further both their political and local objectives.
U.S. troops and bases in Syria and Iraq have been attacked by mid-February 2024 more than 170 times by rockets and drones since October 17th. These attacks have been a direct response to Washington’s support for Israel’s military action in the Gaza Strip.
Since the end of October, U.S. airstrikes have been systematically targeting several facilities utilized by pro-Iranian militias and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in eastern Syria.
Iraq has become the main battlefield for the United States and Iran to carry out proxy attacks and to a lesser extent Syria as well.
In addition, Iran could react in indirect operations as well. Teheran could for example opt for strikes aimed indirectly at Israel and the United States, as was already the case in mid-January over Erbil, where Teheran said it was targeting a center of Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence service. The Iranians could also target Israeli nationals outside its territory.
Even if Iran reacts to Israeli provocations, the main threat is Israel’s impunity, which is a permanent threat to the region and continues to increase the dangers of a regional war. Israel still benefits from US support. As a reminder, While U.S. officials have repeatedly used their veto card against resolutions calling for a possible ceasefire, the current Israeli war against the Gaza Strip would have been militarily impossible without continued U.S. support. Washington has notably accepted since October 7, 2023 the supply of 25 latest generation F-35 combat aircraft, and the other 500 MK82 bombs and more than 1,800 MK84 bombs – which are no longer used by the armies of Western states in densely populated areas due to inevitable collateral damage.
These arms shipments circumvented Congress’s consultation requirement by invoking “emergency powers.” This US administration also made more than 100 arms transfers to Israel without any public debate, using a loophole in which the specific dollar amount of each sale was below the required threshold at which Congress must be notified. For its part, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz said that publicly available flight tracking data shows that at least 140 heavy lift planes bound for Israel have taken off from US military bases around the world since October 7, transporting equipment primarily to Nevatim Air Base in southern Israel.
And if American President Joe Biden signaled discontent following the attack on the World Central Kitchen humanitarian convoy, killing seven employees of the American organization, he again recently affirmed that “the defense of Israel remains essential, so there is no red line that could cut off all (deliveries of) arms so that the country no longer has an Iron Dome to protect it.”The reason is that Israel is still seen as a key player in preserving Western interests in the region. The normalization process between Israel and Arab countries initiated by President Donald Trump and continued by President Joe Biden aimed to consolidate American interests in the region, including in its rivalry with China. US reaction to any Iran action will depend on the nature of the attack, although most probably no direct attack will occur against Iran. But in any case, US will continue to support militarily Israel in its attack against Iran, as it continuously did.
